A fight for sixth place in the WA senate re-run

April 1, 2014


Election pundit, Anthony Green is tipping a fight for sixth place in WA senate election between the Greens' Scott Ludlam, the Palmer United Party, and the microparties (particularly HEMP and Sustainable Population).


Quote: "ABC election analyst Antony Green told The West Australian newspaper that the preference flows indicate that the 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, Green or PUP is the likely result of the WA Senate rerun.

“The last spot will come down to Ludlam, Palmer United or one of the micro-parties,” said Green. Of the micro-parties Green said the Sustainable Population Party and the HEMP party are best situated to benefit from preference flows."http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/22028830/greens-v-pup-for-last-senate-seat/

 

How much will polluters pay under the Direct Action plan?

August 27, 2013
Climate Spectator's Tristan Edis (27/8/13) reports on estimates by the ALP's Mark Butler of the penalties that some larger companies might pay under the Liberals' Direct Action plan, based on emissions figures from the last four years:

Labor’s Climate Change Minister Mark Butler has released data illustrating how a large number of companies are likely to be paying penalties under the Coalition’s Direct Action scheme.  These companies include Origin Energy, Rio Tinto, BHP, OneSteel, Qantas,...


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Climate Change Authority to recommend 15% cuts?

August 27, 2013
Climate Spectator, 2 August, 2013 reported on the leak from the Climate Change Authority Caps and Targets Review draft report:

The Climate Change Authority is expected to recommend the emissions reduction target be increased, arguing that the reduced cost of international carbon permits would mean the target could be raised with minimal impact on businesses, according to The Australian Financial Review.

In a report due to be released in early October, the federal government's climate change adv...


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Wikileaks' WA preferencing decision could give Abbott control of Senate

August 19, 2013
Wikileaks has been courting the climate movement vote with a recently strengthened climate policy (which includes some policies related to phasing out coal but has a puzzling lack of content on leaving gas in the ground). However, their unprincipled decision to preference the WA Nationals ahead of one of Assange's strongest Australian supporters, Greens senator, Scott Ludlam, may possibly deliver the sixth WA Senate place to the Nationals and help Abbott get the majority he needs to wind back...

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Coalition's $4b - $15b climate action black hole

August 15, 2013

A new report by the Climate Institute finds that emissions will increase not decrease under the Coalition's Direct Action policy and that costs would blow out by between $4b and $15b.

From Climate Institute press release:
The Coalition’s climate policy will see Australia’s emissions increase rather than decrease, exposing the Budget, our nation’s carbon competitiveness and its national climate interest.

These are conclusions from the most detailed independent assessment to date of the Co...

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Libs preference decision may not hurt Greens as much as you might think

August 15, 2013

Will the Liberals' decision to give preferences to Labor put an end to the Greens' chances of winning seats at this election? Tim Colebatch in the Age (15/8) argues that Adam Bandt still has a reasonable chance of retaining his seat of Melbourne and that the Greens could hold their own, or even improve their position in the Senate. 


He explains this as follows:

... if Liberal voters direct preferences as they did in the 2010 state election – the last time the Liberals told their supporters t...


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Can Wikileaks win a seat in the Victorian senate?

August 14, 2013
The Wikileaks Party is of interest because they have a reasonable climate policy and they are competing with Janet Rice from the Greens (with a better climate policy) for the last Victorian senate place. Polls give wildly conflicting estimates of what their share of the vote will be. Hence the Glenn Druery preference deals described in the article posted below are of central importance. Crikey has a detailed analysis. Read more here

Some quotes from the Crikey article:
Julian Assange's WikiL...

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Micro party preferences - beware!

August 13, 2013
There are about 50 registered groups competing for Senate seats this election. These include Coke in the Bubblers Party, the Smoker's Rights Party, the Animal Justice Party, Bullet Train for Australia party and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition Party (HEMP).  These parties have little hope of winning an outright ''quota'' - 14.3 per cent of the primary vote in a state (or 33 per cent in a territory). However, preference deals are being organised which could win one of them a senate seat with...
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Origin Energy's views on carbon price and RET

July 23, 2013

Watch this extended interview with Origin Energy's Grant King on the effects the carbon price and the Renewable Energy Target. 

Quote: Origin Energy's chief executive Grant King has told Inside Business a low carbon price would 
lead to future investment in coal rather than gas-powered plants.

"If the price was always going to be $6 you'd be building coal-fired power stations," he said.

"A carbon price of more like $40 is necessary to really swing the economics from building 
coal to gas.

"Insofar ...

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Coalition's soil carbon plan 'unviable', study finds

July 23, 2013


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July 23, 2013
A University of Melbourne survey of hundreds of Australian studies going back three decades found that using the country's soils to offset a significant proportion of national greenhouse gases “is technically limited and economically unviable at the present time”...

At the current carbon price – $24.15 per tonne – farmers would stand to lose at least $12 per tonne for carbon farming under normal soil conditions, the researchers found. The shortfall under the government's plan would be ...

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What would a quick transition to ETS really mean?

July 23, 2013
Matthew Wright and Trevor Jack argue that  'a lower carbon price may bring short-term political gain, but credibility on global warming would go up in smoke'.   

Some quotes: An argument for transitioning to the ETS earlier than currently legislated is that it would be cheaper. True, in the short term, given that the carbon tax would be around $25 and the ETS cost would be about quarter of this. But this is cheaper in the same sense that buying a five-litre can of fuel is cheaper than buying a...

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Tri-partisan support for CSG 'water trigger'

July 23, 2013
The Senate has agreed to give the Commonwealth Environment Minister broader approval powers over coal seam gas projects and large coal mines.

The 'Water Trigger' amendment to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act allows the Federal Environment Minister to consider the impact of CSG projects and large coal mines on water resources, in deciding whether or not to they should be approved.

It passed the Senate with the support of all parties, despite unsuccessful Opposition an...

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Kevin Rudd reframes climate as a hip pocket nerve issue

July 18, 2013
Imagine how much better this interview might have gone if Mark Butler and Kevin Rudd were talking about more ambitious emissions reductions and the need for action on the greatest moral issue of our time?
Caving in to Abbott and the business lobby and talking about the need to change policy to relieve cost of living pressures has done the ALP no good at all.
Will be interesting to see how efforts at 'product differentiation' from the Greens pan out. But probably not really a good idea either ...
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More on the risk to renewables under the Coalition

June 13, 2013

Ben Eltham in the New Matilda:

The man who will become the chair of the Coalition's proposed business advisory council, Maurice Newman, is perhaps the exemplar of this [climate science denialism] line of thinking. Newman, a wealthy former business executive who once chaired the Australian Stock Exchange, is a well-known climate sceptic. Last year he penned an op-ed in The Australian (where else?) in which he claimed that “we have seen the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change discredited...


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Liberal to restrict windfarms and Nationals want to abolish RET

June 12, 2013
How would the wind industry fare under a Coalition government? 

Some excerpts from an article in the Guardian:

The Coalition is under intense pressure from the anti-windfarm lobby and also from many of its own MPs to take much tougher action, either banning new windfarms entirely or abolishing the renewable energy target that provides the industry with an effective federal subsidy. It is promising a review of the Renewable Energy Target (RET)...

The yet-to-be-released [Liberal Party] resources p...
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Combet says carbon price is here to stay

June 5, 2013

Greg Combet at Press Council lunch:

"Carbon pricing is here to stay,'' said Minister for Climate Change Greg Combet today in defiance of Coalition claims Labor should bow to an election mandate. Mr Combet said if Tony Abbott were elected Prime Minister "he cannot and will not repeal the carbon price''. "Labor will remain committed to it,'' he told the National Press Club in Canberra. "Tackling climate change has been in our platform for over two decades, and we will fight for what we believe i...


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Cory Bernardi on Q and A raises concerns

June 5, 2013
Tristan Edis from Business Spectator asks whether Greg Hunt or Cory Bernardi is in charge of Coalition climate policy.

"In trying to work out exactly how the Coalition’s Carbon Emission Reduction Fund (ERF) might work, you can’t help but get a little confused by the contradictory statements made about the policy from different members of the Coalition.

Just as shadow climate change minister Greg Hunt starts to reassure you, someone else from the Coalition makes a statement that makes yo...


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Shorten denies rumours that ALP is considering retreat from Carbon price

June 4, 2013

Melbourne climate group Lighter Footprints has contacted Bill Shorten and he has written back reassuring the group that the speculation about the ALP backing away from the carbon price, if under pressure from the Coalitions after the election, is unfounded.

Read more from Business Spectator below:

It took nearly two weeks, but Bill Shorten on Thursday finally put to rest rumours on both sides of parliament that he was trying to build support for a Labor backflip on carbon pricing.

The speculat...


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Is Batman a safe Labor seat or a Labor/Greens marginal?

June 2, 2013

Anthony Green, well-known election analyst, lists Batman as Labor's safest seat with a margin of 24.8%. However, he notes that "the margins for Batman and Grayndler are shown with a two-party preferred [Labor/Liberal] margin despite the Greens finishing second at the 2010 election."  When you look at the seat as  Labor/Greens marginal a different picture emerges. 

From Leone Taylor, 'The Guardian':

Batman is officially Labor’s safest seat, held by a margin of 24.8%.

But an aggregation of the l...


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Preselection battle in Batman as Martin Ferguson resigns

June 2, 2013



After Tony Abbott's tearful farewell to Martin Ferguson, the battle for preselection in what has been regarded as one of the ALP's safest seats is hotting up. But how safe is it really? (See post above.) David Feeney is standing for preselection, but Ged Kearney has pulled out. Now there are two new local female candidates standing.
 



From 'The Australian' today:
LABOR'S preselection battle for Martin Ferguson's Melbourne seat of Batman has widened, with two female candidates emerging from the ...


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Rob Oakeshott brings on a vote on climate science

May 30, 2013

From Hansard:
Mr Oakshott: Yesterday was a significant step forward. We finally have on the record both party leaders in this chamber in a bipartisan way expressing full confidence in the science community of Australia and their accepted advice on man-made climate change. At times it has been like pulling teeth—and I fully respect that, within the ranks of both major parties there are differing views—but it is important, if we are going to establish certainty for the future of policy and a...


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Important new proposal from China

May 27, 2013

The case for more ambitious targets from Australia continues to build as China proposes stronger action.

“China, the world’s biggest polluter, is proposing to set a cap on greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2016 in a move that is being hailed as a potentially transformative step in the fight against climate change.

According to news reports from China, the powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has proposed setting absolute caps that would divorce the growth on emis...


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Combet speaks up on carbon price

May 20, 2013


More from Business Spectator on the rumoured behind the scenes ALP struggle over the carbon price: 
It may prove mere coincidence that the day Business Spectator breaks news of Shorten possibly maneuvering on carbon pricing, Combet declares removing it would be “immoral”, arguably his strongest line since the policy was enacted.Regardless, his doorstop interview makes for intriguing reading in light of the Shorten speculation.
Journalist: Is Labor still committed if you find yourself in Opp...


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Might the ALP walk away from carbon pricing?

May 20, 2013


Is there a battle brewing between Shorten and Combet for leadership of the ALP after the election - if they lose? Is Shorten sounding out colleagues about walking away from the carbon price like the Coalition did with WorkChoices?

From Business Spectator: "… some strong proponents of climate change action believe Bill Shorten has begun lobbying members of Caucus to abandon carbon pricing as a Labor policy after the next election.
The argument follows the precedent set by the Coalition over Wo...

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Infographic on 400ppm

May 11, 2013
Have a look at this infographic on the importance of the 400ppm figure.



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Liberal MPs want rethink on Coalition's climate change plan

May 11, 2013
Two Liberal MPs want Tony Abbott to review or consider abandoning parts of his $3.2 billion plan to combat climate change in light of ''dire economic circumstances''.

Mal Washer and Dennis Jensen made the comments about the Coalition's Direct Action plan in the same week MPs broke ranks to publicly criticise Mr Abbott's paid parental leave scheme as economically irresponsible.
Western Australian MP Mal Washer said: ''If we are not going to get a big environmental bang for our buck then we ought...
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EU's low carbon price blows back on Australia

May 11, 2013
The unprecedented collapse in European carbon prices is shattering Australia's budget assumptions just as corporate resistance to the market weakens in the developed world's biggest per capita polluter.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/eus-carbon-crisis-blows-back-on-australia-20130509-2j8t0.html
...
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Is the carbon price working to reduce brown coal use?

May 11, 2013
Electricity generated by Australia's highly polluting brown coal power plants has fallen 14 per cent since introduction of the carbon price, while renewable power has soared. However, there are many factors at work.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/less-electricity-from-brown-coal-20130509-2jals.html
...
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Liberals may win control of Senate

May 4, 2013
Latest analysis by expert pollster Anthony Green suggests that the Liberals could win control of the Senate and thus be able to repeal the carbon price.

As reported in The Age:

If current polling continues, and Mr Abbott wins a majority in the House of Representatives, then to repeal the carbon tax he would need 39 votes in the Senate. Currently the Coalition controls 34 out of the 76 seats. 
The Coalition will win another seat in Tasmania and is likely to claim Greens' Senator Sarah Hanson-Youn...

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